Operation 1027, named after the date on which it began, is the largest challenge to military rule in Myanmar since it seized power in a 2021 coup. Characterised by a greater ability for anti-regime forces to cooperate and coordinate, recent defeats imposed on the junta have resulted in it losing control of economically and strategically significant territory on its border with China. Indeed, so serious was the threat posed to the military junta in early November 2023 that Acting President Myint Swe was forced to concede that the country was at risk of breaking apart under the pressure of the conflict.

Over two months on from the start of this new offensive, however, and with China applying greater pressure for a cease-fire in Shan State, hopes expressed by many commentators that military rule in Myanmar was about to collapse now appear overly optimistic. Though anti-regime forces have succeeded in highlighting the military’s deficiencies in the face of largescale offensives conducted simultaneously in multiple parts of the country, their lack of heavy military hardware means that a decisive victory remains beyond their reach at this point.

Now is the time for the US and its partners to consider how best they can support democratic aspirations within the country whilst bringing an end to the present humanitarian crisis. Going beyond maintaining ASEAN centrality and providing continued support for the moribund five-point consensus, the time is now ripe for the US to take the lead in brokering a return to a civilian led government and a resumption of the status quo as it existed before the 2017 Rohingya crisis derailed the US-Myanmar bilateral relationship and, in turn, helped put in place the necessary conditions for the coup of 2021.